Wages before and after unemployment

János Köllõ-Gyula Nagy

We can draw a more or less exact picture about the size of unemployment in Hungary on the basis of regular statistics and about its expected duration on that of some research reports. We know much less about the financial impacts of unemployment on those aiected, what they lose by becoming unemployed and what they can gain by taking a job. After pressenting the survey made in April, 1994, providing the basis for the article, the analysis seeks answers to three questions:1. Why are the wages of those becoming unemployed outstandingly low and how did the earning disadvantages of this group change in recent years against the average of those employed. 2. What factors influence the likelihood that the (aided) unemployed can find a job, and how does this selection influence the wages after unemployment. 3. How do the those finding a job compare to those of the employed and to their own previous earnings.

The family of overlapping cohorts models

András Simonovits

Even the dynamical economics has neglected for a long time the interaction of people who were born and who died at different dates. Continuing the previous survey on Overlapping Generations, the author now reviews the family of Overlapping Cohorts Macromodels (for short OLC). First, optimal stationary paths in an open model with homogenous utility function are considered. The social security systems called Pay­as­You­Go and the Capital Reserve are introduced and compared to the corresponding maximal welfares. Second, optimal stationary and 2­cyclic paths in a closed model with utility function of constant relative risk aversion are investigated. Finally the conclusions are drawn.

The new theory of growth

Dietmar Meyer

The literature related to economic growth has significantly expanded in recent years. At first glance it seems as if these new trends characterized as "new theory of growth" had basically broken with the neoclassical teachings, refusing the interference of the government with the economy, which had been so popular in the 1960ies. This was indicated, among other things, by the micro­economic approach, the novelty of the problems raised, the endogenization of technical progress etc. After a thorougher examination it becomes clear that it would be exaggerated to speak about a breach. The fact rather is that the new growth theory, reacting on the developments of the past few decades, examines topical problems with the aid of a new methodological apparatus, but retaining mostly the traditional approach. In view of the fact that the achievements of the modern growth theory might be important not only for the developed world but also for the Eastern European countries struggling with recession, a review of the theories in question seems to be useful. This is done in Part I of the study.

Some characteristics of small ventures in the early nineties

Ágnes Czako -Tibor Kuczi - György Lengyel - Ágnes Vajda

According to statistics the number of Hungarian small and medium­size ventures attains in our days 800 000. The authors investigate how the social composition of the entrepreneurs has changed since 1988, and what characteristic management behaviour the small actors of economy follow under the changing relations of the nineties. It is an important question of theirs whether the household and entrepreneurial management of small entrepreneurs are separated and whether a group of genuine entrepreneurs can be distinguished among the socially highly differentiated small owners.

About the trendline at the end of the century, or: can we get rid of our past?

Zsuzsa Bekker

The results achieved by Ferenc Jánossy in the theory of development and measurement, as well as his activity analysing the economic processes in empirical manner had equally great impacts. They are parts of his life­work inspiring economic thinking and have created a school in Hungary. Relying on the explanation of development used by Jánossy the study seeks an answer to the question how we should judge the short and longer­term factors and prospects of development after the systemic change. The article examines the impacts on the trendline in socialism, whether the steepness of the trendline changed, whether there was a systems­specific speed of development. It interprets the causes of the characteristic features of the reconstruction periods which rapidly catch up with the trend line as well as the deviating ones in the period of transformation. Finally, recalling the concept of quasi­development, attention is called to the trap of quasi­Europeanism and quasi­systemic­change.